Tucson Foothills Market Trends
including some data + my observations and opinion
In the last six or seven years Tucson has grown to become a very popular destination for winter visitors,
second home owners and retirees, in addition to substantial growth in business and industry and the jobs that go with it.
This popularity has contributed to thousands of Tucson homes being built in new residential subdivisions
springing up all around Tucson - in the Northwest (OroValley), West, South and Southeastern Tucson -
but not in the Foothills. And that’s an important distinction.
Because of a lack of vacant buildable land-and certainly no large tracts of land-plus zoning regulations
that typically designate residential lots as one home per acre- the Tucson Foothills have not experienced
that kind of development.
The Foothills is a relatively small,(about 28 sq. miles) established area, that is pretty much built out,
so that what you see is what will be, with some exceptions.
For perspective, for all of 2007, the Foothills represented just 6.2% of the total number of
single family homes Sold in the greater Tucson Metro area-
9881 homes sold in the greater Tucson Metro - 617 sold in the Tucson Foothills.
Yet the Foothills represented 15.2% of the total dollar volume of all homes sold in Tucson.
Here’s a look at the ups and downs of home sales in the Foothills over the years.
The big drop off in foothills sales occurred in 2006, though the drop was in homes priced
under $1,000,000, while the $1,000,000+ category was UP 30% from the previous year.
But in late 2007 everything changed.
The meltdown of the mortgage markets in August 07 brought sales in the Foothills to a near halt.
Because of the virtual disappearance of jumbo loans, a popular product in the Foothills,
high-end home sales also took a big hit.
For the latest market data and my observations & opinions on Foothills real estate,
check out my Foothills real estate blog
And, oddly enouugh, during this period of declining home sales, home prices in the Foothills continued to rise.
They peaked at $703,616 in 2006, before finally succumbing to the drag of a slower market in 2007,
when the average sold price dropped 3.7%, to $677,512 and then to $616,173 for 2008 - to $535,606 in 09 and
to $501,939 for 2010. Now in December 2011 the average sale price YTD stands at $477,374.
So we continue to ask, have we hit bottom yet.
The ups and downs of the luxury market
The luxury home market - let's call it $1mil+ in the Foothills, really took off in 2004.
In the years 2000 thru 2003, sales of $1mil+ homes ranged between 24 to 30 homes sold each year.
Then in 2004 that number jumped to 60, then to 97 in 2005, and to 126 in 2006- about a 400% increase.
And then the boom went bust and luxury sales slid to 91 in 2007, 54 in 08, 40 in 09 and
39 in 2010. So far in 2011 (as of mid December) 40 have sold.
In 2000 Pima Canyon opened for business in the Tucson Foothills, adding about 300 luxury home sites to the Foothills
in one big swipe. Developed on the very last large parcel of land in the Foothills, with wonderful mountain, canyon and city views,
Pima Canyon is now mostly built out, with homes for sale starting at about $1.0m and going up to $5.0m or more.
At the other end of the spectrum is Skyline Country Club Estates, built in the 60’s and 70’s, it was the first
luxury golf community in the Foothills. By late 2003, as the country began to recover from 9/11,
Tucson started to catch the attention of more luxury home buyers, yet buildable land in the Foothills
was becoming very scarce.
Enter Skyline Country Club. It began to go thru a re-birth, a renaissance.
Skyline has some of the best home sites in the Foothills, high up, and with magnificent views,
and all of it in a very private, gated-golf course community.
Homes that are old and out-dated, and quite a few of them are in Skyline CC, are either being knocked down
and re-built or extensively renovated. And because the land is so valuable, economics dictates building
larger more expensive homes on those lots. See my post - teardowns in the Tucson Foothills for more on this.
Two other unmistakable signs of the scarcity of buildable land in the Foothills was the more recent trends of,
-building luxury homes on what I'll politely call in-fill lots, lots scattered here and there throughout the Tucson Foothills,
and the breaking up of the original multi-acre *Catalina Foothills estates homes -
that were built in the 1930's and 40's - and subdividing that land to build new luxury homes on one acre lots.
See my post- going through changes with a Joesler in the Tucson Foothills for more on this trend.
*For a quick history of the original Catalina Foothills Estates, which were conceived and built by
John Murphey in partnership with Josias Joesler, read Josias Joesler gave Foothills character
However, this rush to luxury home building in the Tucson Foothills got to the point where the supply of luxury
homes far outstripped the demand. And as the market slowed in 2007 and into 2008, builders continued to
put up luxury homes. But eventually the disparity between supply & demand weakened the luxury market
and led to the growth of high-end distress sales, a segment of the market that many believed was immune.
-To see all the homes that have sold in the last 30 days, see Just Listed/Just Sold
- and for sales data, information and my take on the state of the market in the Foothills,
click over to my blog The Tucson Foothills Real Estate blog
But despite the fluctuations of the market, the Tucson Foothills continues to attract those who appreciate
its natural beauty, diversity and easy southwestern lifestyle.
I hope you enjoy it!
John Schneider
Tucson Foothills Homes
Tucson, Arizona 85718 return to homepage
|
